tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5728845570179741211.post7415875771561308966..comments2023-11-16T00:38:23.751-08:00Comments on Stand Firm: What’s Best for “Your Guy” at the LCMS Convention?Scott Diekmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03227142854778319475noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5728845570179741211.post-89195966724277794692010-07-11T19:11:52.254-07:002010-07-11T19:11:52.254-07:00I would guess that the nominations are not a parti...I would guess that the nominations are not a particularly good proxy for the eventual presidential vote, in that the Harrison supporters tend to be more engaged, hence more likely to move their congregations to nominate, while the Kieschnick supporters tend to include many more moderate "vote for the incumbent, things are pretty good" types, whose congregations were less likely to nominate.<br /><br />My guess is that the vote to move up the election is a better proxy, however with a bias: some unknown percentage of H. supporters voted to keep the agenda as is out of respect for the established order; while it is unlikely that many if any K. supporters would have voted to move it up. <br /><br />If I am correct in my analysis, then the outcome of the presidential election depends on the size of this bias. if it is small (<2%), then Kieschnick wins. If it is moderate to large (>4%), then Harrison wins. Either way, I predict the presidential vote will be exceedingly close.Mark Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06107937478556167440noreply@blogger.com